Deutsche Bank review of Cash, Payments and Currency

Deutsche Bank apply their typical German thoroughness when they issued a series of papers earlier this year

  • cash - will survive but cards will morph;
  • collections - payments will be P2P direct into your (non?)custodian wallet, and observation on the difference between innovation and deployment;
  • currency - most potential to alter global payment systems.

While we believe cash will stay, the coming decade will see digital payments grow at light speed, leading to the extinction of the plastic card. Over the next five years, we expect mobile payments to comprise two-fifths of in-store purchases in the US, quadruple the current level. Similar growth is expected in other developed countries, however, different countries will see different levels of shrinkage in cash and plastic cards. In emerging markets, the effect could arrive even sooner. Many customers in these countries are transitioning directly from cash to mobile payments without ever owning a plastic card.